Avengers: Doomsday holds a slim edge in trader sentiment due to its record-shattering presales exceeding $100 million globally two months before release, fueled by the Russo brothers’ return, Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, and an expansive MCU ensemble. This positions the December 18 tentpole to potentially surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s existing $360 million domestic opening—the current 2026 benchmark set in July—through strong premium-format demand and international momentum, particularly in China. Spider-Man’s proven franchise draw and massive global debut create a tight race, while The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah trail with far lower tracking around $60–100 million amid split IMAX screens and November timing. The December holiday window and final presale spikes remain key swing factors.