Recent September 2026 FOMC projections and the 3.7% year-over-year September CPI release anchor trader sentiment around a 4.0–4.5% federal funds rate at end-2027. The median dot plot shifted higher to 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027 after the first rate hike since 2023, reflecting upgraded GDP growth, a lower unemployment forecast at 4.1%, and core PCE inflation holding near 2.5%. Market-implied odds place 4.5% as the modal outcome at 38%, consistent with expectations of additional tightening into 2027 amid persistent services and energy price pressures. Lingering dispersion toward 3.0% or below incorporates uncertainty over whether inflation will moderate enough to permit cuts later in the horizon, while upcoming December projections and labor-market data remain key swing factors.