Vermont’s at-large House seat remains a solidly Democratic district, with incumbent Becca Balint favored to win by a margin clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range according to current trader pricing. Recent September 2026 polling shows Balint leading Republican Gerald Malloy by 17 to 36 points, consistent with her 2024 result and the district’s long-standing partisan lean. Limited polling volume, variable turnout models, and the presence of multiple independent candidates on the November 3 ballot create uncertainty around the precise margin, spreading probability across adjacent buckets rather than concentrating on one outcome. No major late-cycle developments have shifted the race in the past month, leaving the contest’s tightness driven primarily by data gaps ahead of Election Day.