Ursula von der Leyen's re-election as European Commission President in 2024 for the 2024-2029 term has anchored trader expectations that she will remain in office through 2026. Major political groups in the European Parliament, including the EPP, have provided consistent backing, while the absence of successful no-confidence motions or major institutional challenges has reinforced continuity. The five-year Commission cycle and lack of scheduled leadership votes in the interim further support the current implied probability near 95 percent for her staying. Potential shifts could still arise from unexpected developments such as a sudden coalition realignment, health-related incapacity, or a severe geopolitical crisis prompting early resignation, though these remain low-probability events under present conditions.