Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 election and now leads the opposition Fidesz party. The new government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar has launched “Operation Cleansing Fire,” an anti-corruption drive that produced recent arrests of Orbán-era figures including former central bank governor György Matolcsy on fraud charges in late October 2026 and two ex-ministers in September. Probes continue into Orbán’s possible role in specific incidents such as the 2025 Ukrainian convoy seizure, yet no charges or detention order have been issued against him personally. With investigations still advancing and Orbán remaining active in opposition politics, traders assign a 76.4% implied probability that he will not face arrest by December 31.