Recent polling shows the Liberal–National Coalition maintaining a primary vote lead around 29 percent ahead of the November 28 Victorian state election, with Labor at approximately 25 percent and One Nation rising sharply to the low 20s. This positioning underpins the elevated market pricing for a Coalition victory, as traders assess paths to a majority or workable arrangement in the Legislative Assembly. Labor’s long-term incumbency and primary vote erosion have weighed on its prospects, while preference flows involving One Nation and the Greens add uncertainty to seat outcomes. Scheduled early voting and final campaign events in the coming weeks remain the next potential catalysts.