Recent US capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president have shaped trader views on continuity amid stalled transition talks. Ongoing US-backed negotiations through October 2026 between Rodríguez’s government and opposition figures including Dinorah Figuera focus on electoral reforms, Supreme Court restructuring, and easing political disqualifications, yet no election date has been set. Maduro remains in US custody facing expanded charges, while Rodríguez has pursued oil agreements, prisoner releases, and international engagement to consolidate authority. These factors, combined with the absence of a finalized handover process by year-end, underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward Maduro alongside Rodríguez’s secondary positioning.