Recent high-level summits between U.S. and Chinese leaders have produced commitments to strategic stability, expanded communication channels, and mechanisms such as AI and trade dialogues, reinforcing trader views that direct military confrontation remains unlikely before 2027. Ongoing gray-zone activities around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, including frequent PLA patrols and vessel encounters near U.S. allies like the Philippines, continue under managed deterrence rather than escalation. U.S. defense investments and Indo-Pacific task forces signal resolve without crossing into open conflict, while economic interdependence and mutual nuclear risks further discourage direct clashes. The 97.5% implied probability for no clash reflects this consensus on contained competition. Late-breaking miscalculations in maritime incidents, abrupt policy shifts, or leadership events could still alter trajectories within the window.