US policy toward Cuba centers on sustained economic pressure through an oil blockade and sanctions aimed at prompting leadership change, rather than immediate military action. President Trump has publicly stated that a negotiated deal is expected and military options are unnecessary, even as the administration continues contingency planning at US Southern Command, including assessments for support units and activity at Guantanamo Bay. A February 2026 speedboat incursion by armed exiles from Florida, which Cuban authorities say aimed to spark an uprising requiring US intervention, has fueled recent accusations but produced no escalation. Diplomatic channels remain open without formal talks, while the annual UN embargo vote on October 27-28 and further fuel interdictions represent near-term pressure points. These dynamics reflect trader emphasis on non-military tools and statements signaling de-escalation preference.