US military posture toward Colombia centers on counter-narcotics cooperation with the de la Espriella administration, which took office in August 2026 and has authorized joint operations against ELN guerrillas and FARC dissidents. Colombian forces have conducted multiple airstrikes on these groups in October, including a raid killing nine ELN members, while US Southern Command has deployed personnel, aircraft, and Reaper drones for training and support. President Trump’s earlier threats of direct action, renewed in public remarks following the Maduro raid, reflect ongoing US focus on drug trafficking networks, yet current bilateral planning emphasizes partnered strikes rather than unilateral intervention. Scheduled troop exercises and potential precision operations against high-value targets within the resolution window remain the key variables traders monitor for shifts in implied probabilities.