The U.S. decision to back interim President Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro has anchored trader expectations against formal recognition of María Corina Machado by year-end. Washington has prioritized oil-sector access, prisoner releases, judicial reforms, and ongoing reconciliation talks with select opposition figures under Rodríguez, while sidelining Machado despite her recent reaffirmation as opposition leader by the Unitary Democratic Platform. Diplomatic ties resumed in March, sanctions relief expanded, and administration statements have emphasized stability and a phased transition with elections projected for 2027 or later. With roughly two months remaining and no scheduled events likely to reverse this approach, the 96.3% implied probability on “No” reflects consensus that U.S. policy incentives favor continuity over an abrupt shift to Machado. A major breakdown in talks or unexpected diplomatic reversal could still alter the outcome.