The Trump-Putin agreement announced October 9, 2026, and subsequent Treasury OFAC General License 135 authorizing Russian-origin diesel imports through April 2027 represent the dominant catalyst lifting the 2022 ban and shifting trader sentiment. A 40,000-metric-ton ultra-low-sulfur diesel cargo loaded at Primorsk on October 22 is en route to New York with a November 7 arrival—the first tracked U.S. shipment since the ban—following Russia’s partial lift of its own export restrictions. U.S. retail diesel prices remain elevated above $6 per gallon amid global supply tightness, yet Russian exportable volumes have fallen to roughly 240 kb/d due to refinery outages from Ukrainian strikes, limiting incremental supply beyond existing flows to Turkey and Brazil. The U.S. continues exporting about 1.4 mb/d, so physical delivery confirmation and any license challenges will drive near-term pricing around November 30 and December 31 resolutions.