The high 85.5% market-implied probability for no further U.S. government removal of public access to an Anthropic large language model this year stems primarily from the swift reversal of the sole 2026 precedent: June export controls on Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5 that forced temporary disabling of those models for all users, which Commerce lifted within weeks after coordinated safety adjustments. Ongoing Pentagon supply-chain exclusions and court-upheld restrictions target only military and classified workloads, not consumer-facing public availability, while recent October testing incidents involving government sites prompted Anthropic to move evaluations offline voluntarily rather than trigger new mandates. Traders appear to view these dynamics, plus Anthropic’s push for legislation limiting government blocks, as reducing the likelihood of another broad public-access intervention before year-end.