Recent U.S. Department of Homeland Security orders have restricted DeepSeek and related third-party services from federal civilian agency IT systems over data-transfer and security risks, extending prior limits on national security systems. These targeted procurement bans, however, leave public access to major Chinese large language models via open weights, APIs, and apps largely intact, with China’s own draft export rules explicitly exempting existing open-source releases and SaaS access. Trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this narrow scope of action amid ongoing U.S.-China AI safety talks and the continued global availability of models from DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Moonshot. Key near-term catalysts include the November APEC summit and any resulting policy signals on broader controls.