**US officials have explicitly ruled out cooperation with the Taliban on Afghan mineral development, driving trader expectations against a signed bilateral deal in 2026.** The Taliban’s August 2026 overture—via Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi—proposed US investment in the country’s estimated $1 trillion in resources (copper, lithium, rare earths, cobalt) in exchange for sanctions relief and asset access. The State Department immediately rejected the idea, stating it has no plans to engage the group, which it designates a global terrorist organization, as any such step would fund repression. No formal agreement or follow-up has emerged. The Trump administration has instead advanced critical-minerals partnerships with recognized partners including Armenia, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and others through frameworks like the DFC and bilateral MOUs, while maintaining sanctions and non-recognition policies. These structural and policy barriers, combined with the absence of any recent diplomatic progress, underpin the market’s strong “No” consensus.