Strong trailer launches, including a teaser drawing 109 million views in its first day, combined with record book sales for Suzanne Collins’ *Sunrise on the Reaping* (1.5 million copies in week one), have positioned the November 20, 2026 release for a 65-75 million domestic opening as the market favorite. Traders see the return of director Francis Lawrence, an expanded ensemble cast featuring Joseph Zada as young Haymitch alongside Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, and Elle Fanning, and September re-releases of prior films with exclusive footage as momentum builders that exceed the 2023 prequel’s $44.6 million debut. Higher production costs and a crowded holiday frame introduce downside risk below 65 million, while franchise loyalty and IMAX appeal cap upside probabilities. Presale trends and final marketing updates in the coming weeks remain key swing factors for these ranges.