Target's Q3 comparable sales growth expectations center on the momentum from its Q2 results, where comps rose 3.8% year over year on 3.6% traffic gains and broad category expansion, prompting management to lift full-year net sales guidance to around 5%. Strength in beauty, hardlines, and food and beverage has offset persistent softness in apparel and home, where assortment resets and traffic remain works in progress. With Q3 earnings due November 18, traders are pricing the 3%–5% band as the base case amid steady consumer traffic trends and digital channel gains, while the lower-probability 5%+ outcome reflects upside from holiday preview momentum and the 1%–3% range accounts for potential discretionary pullback. These market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets reflecting the balance between recent turnaround progress and category-specific headwinds.