Recent polling has shown DPP challenger Puma Shen gaining sharply on incumbent KMT mayor Chiang Wan-an ahead of the November 28 vote, with one mid-October survey placing Shen at 50.3 percent support versus Chiang’s 33.3 percent after the incumbent held a narrow edge the prior month. Shifts in suitability ratings and independent voter preferences have contributed to the movement, though other surveys show narrower margins and turnout-weighted projections remain closer. Market pricing assigns Chiang the highest implied probability at 62.5 percent, with Shen at 37.6 percent and all other listed candidates at or below 0.1 percent, reflecting trader emphasis on historical KMT strength in Taipei, incumbency advantages, and uncertainty over whether recent survey swings will hold through election day.