Garry Purewal holds the leading position in this Surrey-Fleetwood contest at 63.5% implied probability, ahead of incumbent Jagrup Brar at 32.5%, with all other candidates at negligible levels. The edge stems from provincial polling trends favoring the BC Conservatives in the days before the October 24 general election, combined with local canvassing reports of shifting voter sentiment on cost-of-living pressures, crime, and healthcare access. The riding flipped narrowly to the NDP in 2024 but now shows a toss-up or slight Conservative tilt in independent projections, reflecting broader regional momentum after the recent Surrey municipal results. Upcoming advance voting and final weekend campaigning remain the key variables that could still alter the outcome before polls close.