Ongoing attacks and a U.S. naval blockade have kept AIS-visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5% of pre-crisis levels (around 4–7 ships daily versus a baseline near 85), with October recording the highest monthly incidents since the February 2026 Iran conflict began. Trader consensus pricing “No” at 94.5% reflects this sustained disruption, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and the absence of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough that would restore normal volumes by November 30. While partial crude outflows via escorted lanes or bypass pipelines have approached prewar averages in isolated periods, refined-product flows and overall shipping remain severely constrained. A sudden ceasefire or accelerated U.S.-Iran talks could still lift restrictions faster than expected.