**PP leads trader consensus at 74.5% implied probability to win the November 29, 2026 general election, ahead of PSOE at 24.5%.** Most private poll averages place the center-right PP on 31-32% and the Socialists on 25-27%, giving PP the largest seat total and enabling a PP-Vox majority above the 176-seat threshold in nearly all projections. The snap election, called after Congress rejected housing decrees in early October, has highlighted left-wing fragmentation that undercuts PSOE mobilization efforts. Vox’s steady 18-20% support further bolsters the right’s coalition path. State-run CIS surveys showing PSOE ahead remain outliers against the broader polling trend, sustaining market pricing that reflects PP’s stronger position entering the final campaign weeks.