Recent polls place the combined PP and Vox national vote share near 50 percent, with averages around 31-32 percent for PP and 18-19 percent for Vox across multiple survey firms in mid-to-late October 2026. The snap general election called for November 29 has prompted PP-Vox coordination talks focused primarily on Senate lists rather than broader vote consolidation. PSOE and allied left parties maintain roughly 27-28 percent combined, while regional and smaller lists continue to fragment the remainder. Traders assign the 62.5 percent probability to “No” because modest PP softening in recent surveys, potential left turnout effects, and the narrow margin in most projections leave limited room for the right-wing bloc to clear the threshold reliably.