Strong semiconductor and AI hardware exports continue to anchor South Korea’s growth outlook, prompting successive upward revisions to 2026 full-year forecasts, including the IMF’s lift to 3.3% and the OECD’s to 3.7%. Q2 2026 GDP rose 3.7% year-over-year, supported by facility investment and chip demand that has outpaced supply. With the Bank of Korea’s advance Q3 estimate scheduled for October 27, trader-implied probabilities cluster around the 2.5–3.4% range, reflecting uncertainty over quarterly momentum, base effects, and potential sensitivity to the chip cycle or external demand shifts. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices in resilient but possibly moderating sequential growth relative to the second quarter.