Elevated global energy prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven South African fuel costs sharply higher, pushing headline CPI to 4.5% year-on-year in September 2026—below consensus but still above the SARB’s 3% target. The central bank now projects inflation averaging 4.4% for the full year while remaining above 5% through the second quarter of 2027, with upside risks from oil, food, and administered prices. This near-term persistence, reinforced by the September 25-basis-point repo rate hike to 7.25%, underpins trader pricing that places the highest implied probability on a 2026 annual average exceeding 5%. Softer core readings and contained food inflation provide some offset, yet the fuel shock continues to dominate expectations ahead of the November MPC meeting and October data.