**Ivica Dačić’s “Factor of Stability!” list leads the market for third place at 71.5 percent because recent polls place the Socialist Party of Serbia coalition just above the 3 percent threshold while most other lists remain below it.** The latest Ipsos survey, conducted October 20–22, showed the Vučić-led United Serbia list at 47.4 percent and the Student List at 40 percent, with Dačić’s SPS coalition at 3.2 percent—enough for roughly eight seats—while Authentic Right polled at 1.7 percent and European Serbia at 0.8 percent. Earlier surveys produced similar rankings, with SPS support holding steady near or slightly above the cutoff. Traders appear to view the Socialist list’s established voter base and coalition history as more reliable than the fragmented smaller parties and ethnic-minority lists that typically clear the threshold only in limited numbers. The market resolves on official seat totals after the October 25 vote.