The Supreme Court’s 6-3 conservative majority, which has steadily expanded Second Amendment protections in recent terms, drives the strong trader consensus that it will invalidate AR-15 bans. The Court granted certiorari in June 2026 in consolidated challenges to restrictions in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut, with oral arguments set for December 2. Recent signals from Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch, plus the Justice Department’s amicus brief arguing that AR-15s qualify as arms in common use for lawful purposes, reinforce expectations of a ruling striking down the measures under precedents like Heller and Bruen. A decision is anticipated by mid-2027, though shifts in Court dynamics or unforeseen procedural developments could still alter the outcome.