**The primary drivers of trader sentiment center on the circuit split over whether sports event contracts on CFTC-registered platforms qualify as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, triggering exclusive federal jurisdiction and preemption of state gambling laws.** The Third Circuit sided with operators like Kalshi in April 2026, while the Ninth (August) and Sixth (September) Circuits ruled the contracts are not swaps and states retain authority, creating a clear divide that historically favors Supreme Court review. New Jersey’s September 2 petition in *Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC* (No. 26-299) remains pending, with Kalshi’s response due November 9 and a decision on certiorari not expected before December. Supporting amicus briefs from the NFL, former Senator Christopher Dodd, former CFTC Chair Gary Gensler, tribes, and gaming groups, alongside the CFTC’s October 9 proposed rules classifying event contracts as swaps, underscore the high stakes for prediction markets versus traditional sports betting regulation. These factors, plus related filings from Robinhood and others, shape expectations around whether the Court will grant review to resolve the jurisdictional conflict.