Recent US-mediated diplomacy has sharply raised trader expectations for Russia-Ukraine talks. On October 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin told US envoy Steve Witkoff that Moscow is willing in principle to resume trilateral technical-level negotiations with Ukraine and the United States around November 10, potentially in Abu Dhabi, focusing on postwar security arrangements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed support for the format no later than early November. The sides also agreed to a localized ceasefire in occupied Oleshky effective October 27 to enable aid deliveries. These steps follow months without formal contacts and align with the sharp rise in Polymarket probabilities for meetings by November 30 or December 31. Core gaps persist over territorial control and security guarantees, with any leader-level follow-up still unconfirmed.