Russian military operations against an EU or NATO member remain focused on hybrid measures, including drone incursions into airspace, sabotage of transport and energy infrastructure, and cyberattacks, as assessed by German and Danish intelligence services in September and October 2026. Officials describe a growing but still low risk of limited kinetic actions—such as long-range strikes on Ukraine-support facilities or small unmarked incursions—to test Article 5 responses and divert European resources, while ruling out near-term full-scale invasion. Russia has issued nuclear warnings tied to Kaliningrad scenarios and denied conventional attack plans, even as NATO commanders outline “block, blunt, break” deterrence and European states heighten alerts. These developments, occurring amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict and shifting U.S. diplomatic signals, shape trader views on the timing and threshold for direct military action.