Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) leads trader consensus at 70.5% for the Rio Grande do Norte governor runoff, ahead of Cadu de Lula (PT) at 28.5%, after both advanced from the October 4 first round where Allyson took 36.94% and Cadu 36.16% of valid votes. Recent polls, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys conducted in mid-October, show a technical tie or narrow Allyson edge on valid votes (52-48% or 45-42%), within margins of error. Lower rejection rates for Allyson (around 24%) compared with Cadu (33%) and the October 25 vote date reinforce the positioning, as do endorsements shifting toward the runoff contenders. The remaining candidates from the first round, such as Álvaro Dias, hold negligible implied probabilities consistent with their elimination.