The October 5, 2026 Quebec general election produced a Parti Québécois minority government after the party captured roughly 60 of 127 seats on 28 percent of the vote. This outcome left the PQ about 20 seats ahead of the Quebec Liberals, who finished with 39–40 seats, directly supporting the high probability assigned to a 20–29 seat margin. A five-way split of the popular vote, the complete collapse of the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, and the PQ’s efficient concentration of support in francophone ridings produced the decisive seat gap. Post-election judicial recounts, including the narrow flip of the Vachon riding to the PQ, have finalized the totals and reinforced trader consensus around this range while leaving limited room for the narrower 10–19 margin category.