Prabowo Subianto, elected in 2024 for a five-year term ending in 2029, faces declining public approval that reached 44.5 percent in early October 2026 surveys, down from over 80 percent the prior year. Traders weigh this against his continued consolidation of authority through multiple October cabinet reshuffles that blended coalition loyalists with technocrats, alongside sustained economic growth of 5.45 percent in the first half of the year. Recent catalysts include student-led protests on his two-year anniversary over food prices, the free-meals program’s implementation problems including poisoning cases, and currency and market weakness. Active diplomacy, including a meeting with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and the absence of formal removal proceedings or major opposition breakthroughs support the broad coalition’s stability. Upcoming factors include further protests, election-law revisions ahead of 2029, and fiscal pressures from populist initiatives.