The tight clustering of implied probabilities around FBC Melgar and a dozen other Liga 1 sides stems from the compressed aggregate table after 28 rounds, where clubs from roughly 25 to 45 points sit within striking distance of 16th place with six Clausura matches left. Several teams, including UTC Cajamarca, ADT, FC Cajamarca, and CD Moquegua, remain mired in or near the relegation zone after point deductions and inconsistent results, while mid-table outfits such as Los Chankas, Sporting Cristal, Sport Huancayo, and Comerciantes Unidos retain realistic paths to finish exactly 16th depending on upcoming fixtures and goal-difference tiebreakers. Recent Clausura form has produced mixed outcomes for these sides, with no dominant momentum shift, leaving traders viewing the final positioning as highly uncertain until the closing weeks.