Houthi forces seized Perim Island in mid-September 2026 during a rapid coastal offensive that also captured Mocha and Dhubab, securing positions at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's narrowest point after pro-government forces withdrew. Subsequent clashes under Operation Dawn of Yemen have produced competing territorial claims, with some reports of limited government advances or sieges in October, yet Houthi units continue reinforcing defensive positions, establishing local administration, and maintaining primary military presence on the island. No verified large-scale counteroffensive or negotiated transfer has reversed control as of late October. Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to a shift by year-end, reflecting the Houthis' logistical consolidation and the internationally recognized government's constrained capacity for sustained operations in the area within the resolution windows.