The October 5, 2026 Quebec general election produced a Parti Québécois minority government and positioned the Parti libéral du Québec as official opposition with a preliminary total of 40 seats. This outcome followed a fragmented vote in which the PLQ captured roughly 24 percent of the popular vote, more than doubling its 2022 seat count while the former governing Coalition Avenir Québec was eliminated entirely. Traders have priced the 36-39 seat range at 99 percent because one narrow PLQ riding remains subject to a recount that could reduce the total to 39, with final certification and any additional adjustments still pending. Historical patterns of minor seat shifts during recounts and official tabulation in multi-party races reinforce the current market consensus around this narrow band.