The 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election for Lithuania’s Seimas, set for 8 November with a possible runoff on 22 November, features a fragmented field of registered candidates following the death of the prior Liberal Movement incumbent. Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union holds the highest implied probability among traders, reflecting his 2024 first-round performance in the constituency and established local profile, while Vladislav Kondratovič of the Social Democrats, Ignotas Adomavičius of Nemuno aušra, and several others trail with lower shares. The race stays tightly contested because no single candidate commands majority support in available indicators, party competition remains dispersed across the single-member district, and limited recent polling leaves room for shifts in voter preferences. Upcoming campaign developments, candidate endorsements, or turnout patterns in the final weeks could widen gaps ahead of the vote.