Nicușor Dan has served as Romania’s president since his May 2025 inauguration following a runoff victory, with a five-year term extending into 2030. Traders assign a 97.3% implied probability that he remains in office through 2026, reflecting the high constitutional thresholds for removal. Impeachment requires signatures from at least one-third of parliamentarians to trigger a suspension referendum, a process that has not secured the necessary cross-party support amid the ongoing government-formation deadlock since the May 2026 no-confidence vote against the prior cabinet. Recent developments, including Dan’s active role in EU budget negotiations and prime-ministerial nominations, show institutional continuity without the parliamentary majority or public momentum needed for early exit. Late shifts could arise only from a completed impeachment referendum or unforeseen resignation, both viewed as remote given current alignments.