Giorgia Meloni holds the leading position in trader assessments for Italy’s next prime minister due to her status as incumbent heading the longest-serving government since World War II, combined with a centre-right coalition polling near or above the 42% threshold needed for the majority bonus under the recently approved proportional electoral reform. The October 2026 changes require pre-election coalition pacts naming a prime ministerial candidate, which has reinforced her frontrunner status ahead of the 2027 vote while exposing divisions in the centre-left “campo largo” between Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte. Recent polls show the two main blocs in a near dead heat, with Roberto Vannacci’s far-right party providing a potential swing factor but remaining outside the governing alliance for now. Economic pressures and the end of EU recovery funds add uncertainty, yet Meloni’s coalition stability keeps her well ahead of other named contenders in the market.