Jess Wilson leads the market at 79% as traders assess the November 28 Victorian state election, where her Liberal-National Coalition holds a consistent though narrowing primary-vote advantage over Labor in recent polls. Wilson assumed opposition leadership in late 2025 and has maintained stronger personal ratings than Premier Ben Carroll, who took over in July 2026 after Jacinta Allan’s resignation. Carroll’s 13.9% reflects Labor’s 12-year incumbency fatigue, elevated state debt, and limited polling recovery since the leadership transition. One Nation’s Warren Pickering sits at 6.3% amid its rising primary support, while other named candidates remain marginal due to low party standing or prior withdrawals. The implied probability favors Wilson forming government as preferred premier.