The market-implied odds of 92% against any Muse Spark 1.4+ release by October 31 reflect the recent October 15 launch of Muse Spark Open, Meta’s open-weight counterpart to the September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 release. With prior point releases spaced roughly monthly and major engineering effort now focused on distributing the new 816B-parameter MoE model through APIs and Hugging Face, traders see limited room for another major iteration inside the next ten days. Historical patterns of Meta’s Superintelligence Labs cadence, combined with the need for post-training, safety evaluations, and infrastructure scaling, reinforce this positioning. A credible surprise announcement or accelerated internal timeline could still shift sentiment, though such moves remain uncommon in recent model cycles.