The AfD's September 2026 Landtag election victory with 43.8% of the vote and 39 seats has positioned its parliamentary leader Ulrich Siegmund as the clear frontrunner for Ministerpräsident. Traders see his planned December candidacy as the dominant scenario given the party's largest bloc, even though it falls three votes short of an absolute majority in the 83-seat chamber. Other parties have ruled out coalitions with the AfD, while the CDU has signaled it will exit the chamber during the first two voting rounds to withhold support. Limited cross-voting observed in the recent Landtag president election and the possibility of a third-round simple majority sustain modest probabilities for alternatives such as acting Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze and several lower-profile figures. The December timeline and procedural rules remain the key variables shaping current pricing.