**Recent polling shows the ANC and DA nearly tied in Nelson Mandela Bay ahead of the November 4, 2026 local government elections, with the DA at 37.7% and ANC at 37.4%.** This tight contest, combined with a crowded field of 38 parties and nine independents, sustains high uncertainty over the mayoral outcome and keeps multiple candidates priced closely in the market. Incumbent ANC mayor Babalwa Lobishe faces ongoing scrutiny, including a DA court application seeking personal liability for an irregular R25 million transformer lease approved without council authorization. Retief Odendaal, the DA’s candidate and a former mayor, has highlighted systemic service delivery failures, irregular expenditure exceeding R2 billion, and infrastructure backlogs as central campaign issues. ANC internal dynamics, such as Andile Lungisa’s court challenge over his proportional representation list placement, add further variables. No party is expected to secure an outright majority, making post-election coalition negotiations the decisive factor. Smaller parties like the EFF, Patriotic Alliance, and UDM (which named Mandla Peter as its candidate on October 18) are positioned to influence the final selection of the mayor. Recent surveys reflect this balance, with Lobishe and Odendaal nearly even as preferred candidates, underscoring how coalition arithmetic and last-minute developments could shift probabilities before results are finalized.