Netanyahu's recent statements that the National Security Ministry must remain under Likud control after the October 27 Knesset elections have shaped trader views on the next appointee. With coalition negotiations expected to follow the vote, probabilities remain dispersed across numerous candidates as no single figure has secured a clear path to the role. Ben-Gvir's tenure and demands for advancement have prompted Likud pushback, while "no appointment by late February" reflects uncertainty over government formation timelines and potential delays. Election outcomes, party seat totals, and explicit portfolio allocations in any new coalition agreement represent the main factors that could consolidate support around specific contenders from Likud or allied lists.