Morena holds a commanding position in the Nayarit state congress race, reflected in its 78% implied probability, due to consistent polling leads for the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance ahead of the June 2027 elections. Recent Mitofsky surveys from mid-October 2026 show the coalition at 45% support versus under 16% for PRI-PAN and 9% for Movimiento Ciudadano, with Jasmín Bugarín as the leading gubernatorial preference at 47%. This dominance stems from Morena’s established legislative majority since the 2024 contest and sustained voter preference in a state where concurrent gubernatorial, congressional, and municipal races amplify party momentum. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, and MC register single-digit to low-double-digit figures, limiting their path to a plurality of the 30 seats. No major shifts have altered the landscape in the past month.