Hsu Shu-hua, the Kuomintang incumbent magistrate since 2022, holds a commanding lead in the Nantou County Magistrate race ahead of the November 28 vote. Nantou has remained under KMT control for more than two decades, giving the party a durable structural edge that traders view as difficult for challengers to overcome. Recent polling from early October showed 70 percent of respondents satisfied with her performance and supporting re-election, citing achievements such as debt reduction to zero and expanded elderly services. Her Democratic Progressive Party opponent, Wen Shih-cheng, has focused criticism on issues like a proposed incinerator project but has not shifted the market consensus. The 95.7 percent implied probability for Hsu reflects this entrenched position, though late developments such as a major scandal or national political realignment could still alter outcomes before election day.