Nocturne leads the market at 75% implied probability because he posted a 95% ban rate across the first 22 Worlds 2026 games, banned in 21 of 22 Play-In matches without a single pick. His global ultimate creates vision denial and teamfight disruption that pro teams prioritize removing on patch 26.20, the tournament version. Other high-contested picks such as Vi, Ezreal, Jarvan IV, and Cassiopeia show solid ban shares but trail far behind in total volume. The current pricing reflects early-stage data from the Swiss and Play-In stages, where Nocturne’s presence has remained near-total while the field remains open for later adjustments once the main bracket advances and patch-specific counters or meta shifts emerge.