Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 78% because his Renovación Popular list secured a narrow plurality of about 27.8% in the October 4, 2026 municipal election, ahead of Francis Allison at 26.8% and Carlos Bruce at 15.2%, with official tallies near completion. This outcome stems from pre-election polling trends favoring conservative lists and the withdrawal of the party's original mayoral nominee, elevating López Aliaga to first councilor on the ticket. Ongoing legal proceedings center on Peru's constitutional ban on immediate mayoral re-election, following his 2025 resignation to pursue the presidency, alongside disputes over actas and whether the top councilor assumes the post. Election authorities have rejected calls for a runoff, leaving trader consensus on his ultimate proclamation as mayor driven by the vote margin and procedural precedents rather than unresolved challenges.