Rafael López Aliaga's Renovación Popular list holds a narrow lead in the October 4 Lima municipal election, with roughly 27.8% of valid votes to Francis Allison's 26.8% at 95% of tally sheets processed by ONPE, a margin of about 50,000 votes amid 1,200 disputed sheets still under review by electoral juries. Traders assign López Aliaga an 88% implied probability because his party finished first and the constitutional bar on immediate reelection has not yet blocked his path after he ran as first councilor following the registered mayoral candidate's withdrawal. Allison and Carlos Bruce trail substantially in the count, while remaining candidates register negligible shares. Resolution hinges on final adjudication of contested ballots and any court rulings on list eligibility before authorities take office in January 2027.