President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional protections that bar most criminal proceedings against a sitting president, with ongoing trials suspended pursuant to Article 84 except in cases of insurrection or treason. Recent Ministry of Justice fact-finding reviews of legacy cases, including the Wirye development matter, identified no serious prosecutorial misconduct, limiting momentum for new actions or charge withdrawals before 2027. Prosecution reforms enacted in 2026 have further shifted investigative authority away from entities previously involved in his indictments. Trader consensus at 95.3% for no arrest reflects these structural barriers and the absence of immediate political or legal catalysts capable of overriding immunity. Rare pathways that could alter the outcome include successful impeachment proceedings or narrowly tailored charges falling outside standard protections, though neither shows current traction.