SpaceX’s completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise has established the benchmark for 2026 debuts, driving its 68.5% market-implied odds as the largest by market cap. The company’s post-IPO trading around $2 trillion reflects strong initial demand despite elevated multiples relative to 2025 revenue. xAI’s 25.5% odds stem from its February acquisition by SpaceX, creating uncertainty over standalone recognition, while Anthropic’s 23.3% reflects its planned November listing now targeting closer to $1.5 trillion after earlier $2 trillion ambitions cooled amid reported heavy losses and infrastructure costs. Other candidates remain below 1% due to delayed or smaller-scale plans.